Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd46e…a2ba weather 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$200 (+2%) realized +$1,076 · open −$876
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%29W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day194.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$2,341
other 14% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +16.2% +5.1% 10% 10% -91.6%
≤30d 247 +23.9% +12.1% 12% 11% -88.3%
≤90d 247 +23.9% +12.1% 12% 11% -88.3%
all 247 +23.9% +12.1% 12% 11% -88.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 11% -88.3%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 11% -89.5%
15% -8.4% 10% -90.5%
20% -17.4% 10% -91.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late +144% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$982
Realized+$1,076
Unrealized−$876
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses29 / 218
Open positions274
Markets (closed)247 / 132
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day194.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 274 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $4 $49 +$44 (+996%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 98¢ $5 $49 +$44 (+981%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 67¢ $5 $37 +$32 (+637%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 99¢ $3 $33 +$30 (+994%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $7 $30 +$23 (+312%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 48¢ $5 $29 +$24 (+433%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 33¢ $7 $27 +$19 (+263%)
Will Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in June? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $8 $24 +$16 (+216%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 78¢ $3 $23 +$21 (+758%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 37¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+307%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $2 $21 +$19 (+999%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 35¢ $5 $18 +$14 (+285%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+230%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $18 +$12 (+224%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $5 $18 +$12 (+241%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+241%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $4 $16 +$12 (+279%)
Will Seoul have between 150-160mm of precipitation in June? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $8 $16 +$9 (+116%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $5 $16 +$10 (+191%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $5 $16 +$10 (+191%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $5 $16 +$10 (+191%)
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? Yes 11¢ 38¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+242%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+202%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+164%)
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Yes 12¢ 82¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+556%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 226 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 +$4 +24265%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +22154%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on June Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 30? Jun 16 $2 −$3 -122%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 10? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 10? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 16 $3 −$5 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 29? Jun 16 $1 −$5 -356%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on May 31 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 2? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 29? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 24? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 16 $4 −$7 -176%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 8? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 6? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +785%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on June 2? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 24? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 20? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on May 23? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$4 -275%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 16 $2 −$5 -230%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 16 $0 −$5 -1026%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 20? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 30? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 16 $4 −$7 -162%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 25? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 28? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Jun 16 $1 −$4 -258%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on May 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1434%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on May 30? Jun 16 $76 −$90 -118%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on May 26? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 41m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL Yes 32¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $981.80 · official $971.72 · 3500 history records