Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd46e…d10d sports 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,973 (-6%) realized −$4,925 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%273W / 378L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$1,776est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$1,079
14 days−$3,232
30 days−$3,408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$7,271
other 7% +$372
crypto 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -51.0% -55.6% 25% 23% -46.2%
≤30d 320 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 39% -16.3%
≤90d 651 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 40% -16.8%
all 651 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 40% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 39% -24.7%
15% -36.3% 37% -32.0%
20% -42.5% 32% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$106 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$4,925
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses273 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,776
Open positions2
Markets (closed)651 / 653
History coverage50d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 33¢ 11¢ $31 $10 −$21 (-67%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 25¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $22 +$37 +174%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $17 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $39 +$17 +44%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $45 −$23 -52%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 +$45 +243%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $70 +$44 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $63 +$65 +103%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $277 +$224 +81%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $76 −$9 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $150 +$18 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $45 +$22 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 33¢ $32 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 90¢ $74 18m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 39¢ $33 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 66¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 33¢ $31 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 54¢ $59 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 19¢ $22 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 12¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 52¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $36 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 51¢ $36 3d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $29 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 28¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 46¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 40¢ $12 3d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 35¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 89¢ $57 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 61¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 53¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 99¢ $63 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 26¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 32¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 55¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 60¢ $21 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 44¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 3d
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.49 (match) · 1672 history records