Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd46b…5dab
world · 287 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$69,042 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$69,180 · open −$138
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,559
Realized+$69,180
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses137 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)285 / 287
Avg bet$1,642
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 285 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,388
7 days−$1,388
14 days−$5,064
30 days−$5,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1,687 $1,549 −$138 (-8%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $475 $0 −$475 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $25 −$14 -55%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 12 $750 −$257 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,471 −$1,116 -76%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $25 −$3 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $3,984 −$3,449 -87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 01 $81 −$50 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 01 $522 −$177 -34%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $206 −$21 -10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $200 +$13 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $263 +$48 +18%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $60 +$285 +475%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35,009 +$230 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $300 −$113 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $1,000 −$395 -40%
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 18 $1,420 +$131 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 14 $311 −$190 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 14 $1,078 −$200 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $13,998 −$6,643 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $835 −$191 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 08 $538 +$250 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $250 +$197 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 06 $525 +$323 +62%
Will New York Giants win the 2026 NFC East? May 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 06 $829 +$43 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 06 $1,500 −$27 -2%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? May 02 $416 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $353 −$56 -16%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Apr 28 $797 −$393 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $17,368 −$5,889 -34%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 26 $1,595 −$1,441 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $326 −$73 -22%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Apr 26 $218 −$98 -45%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $2,265 −$2,035 -90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $4,813 −$4,813 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $2,137 −$787 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $1,558 −$575 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $16,064 −$8,777 -55%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $13,655 +$6,287 +46%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Apr 16 $100 −$44 -44%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 16 $742 +$260 +35%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 15 $75 +$19 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $5,750 −$1,052 -18%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $361 +$203 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? Apr 15 $350 −$105 -30%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $567 +$62 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 92% +$62,162
other 4% +$1,594
finance 2% +$5,255
economics 1% −$391
sports 1% +$466
politics 0% +$50
crypto 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 42¢ $12 1h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $128 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $356 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $355 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,181 13h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 49¢ $22 13h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 34¢ $10 38h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 19¢ $10 38h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 54¢ $25 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $535 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 37¢ $346 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $63 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 14d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 21¢ $185 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $213 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $376 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,300 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $388 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.6% -38.1% 20% 20% -64.5%
≤30d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 16% -19.7%
≤90d 126 +13.2% +2.4% 32% 25% -4.2%
all 285 +32.5% +19.8% 48% 30% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.8% 30% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.4% 21% -5.9%
15% -2.1% 17% -15.0%
20% -11.7% 13% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,558.95 · official $1,558.95 (match) · 3500 history records