Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd469…295a crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$133
crypto 40% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 57% -11.1%
≤30d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 57% -11.1%
≤90d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 57% -11.1%
all 14 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 57% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 57% -11.1%
10% -9.8% 50% -19.6%
15% -18.5% 43% -27.4%
20% -26.5% 43% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$144 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $152 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $91 +$81 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $96 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$82 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $170 −$63 -37%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $199 −$198 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $218 −$215 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $190 +$151 +79%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $123 +$67 +55%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $75 +$48 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $152 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $107 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $170 13h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $199 23h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $218 46h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $101 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $190 3d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $123 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $75 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records