Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd469…4642 world 77 markets active 11h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$14
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3
politics 25% +$5
other 23% $0
sports 11% −$9
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.3% -7.5% 43% 14% -4.9%
≤30d 30 +2.0% -7.8% 30% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 73 +0.8% -8.8% 32% 4% -9.3%
all 76 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage528d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 +$12 +29%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $207 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $63 −$5 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $66 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $85 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $40 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $48 −$4 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $4 $0 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $16 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $8 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $17 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $41 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $38 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $36 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $35 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $36 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records