Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd468…f6fe sports 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,247 (+7%) realized +$2,256 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%301W / 425L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$11
14 days+$109
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$616
crypto 16% +$1,172
other 1% +$18
world 0% −$1
politics 0% +$12
finance 0% +$14
weather 0% +$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +10.9% +0.3% 42% 42% -9.3%
≤30d 242 +11.6% +1.0% 43% 42% -5.8%
≤90d 538 +10.1% -0.4% 42% 42% -5.4%
all 726 +5.8% -4.3% 41% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 41% -4.7%
10% -13.4% 40% -13.8%
15% -21.8% 38% -22.1%
20% -29.5% 36% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$34 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$2,256
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses301 / 425
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions3
Markets (closed)726 / 729
History coverage139d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 47¢ 33¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$31 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$84 +791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$107 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$215 +106%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $243 −$95 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38 +$22 +59%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$25 +163%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$22 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $94 +$96 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $115 +$85 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 −$18 -60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$56 +164%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $62 +$38 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $42 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $95 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.08 · official $11.08 (match) · 2844 history records