Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd467…573c world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$2
other 13% $0
culture 11% −$2
sports 4% +$2
politics 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 20% -9.2%
≤30d 18 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 6% -9.8%
all 37 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage476d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $80 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $6 −$1 -21%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $35 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -12%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
UCLA vs. Northwestern Mar 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will "Yuck!" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will "Sugarcane" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $11 $0 -1%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $13 $0 -4%
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Idaho vs. Montana State Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 2? Mar 02 $12 $0 +4%
Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Osc Mar 02 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $9 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $30 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $42 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $34 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $41 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $21 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.73 · official $42.04 (match) · 125 history records