Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd466…dad0 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-6%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%50W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$35
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -10.2% -18.8% 77% 17% -17.1%
≤30d 71 -9.8% -18.4% 70% 20% -16.4%
≤90d 71 -9.8% -18.4% 70% 20% -16.4%
all 71 -9.8% -18.4% 70% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 20% -16.4%
10% -26.2% 10% -24.4%
15% -33.3% 6% -31.7%
20% -39.9% 6% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses50 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records