Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd466…0706 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,073 (-33%) realized −$1,073 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$693
other 10% −$67
politics 9% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +74.6% +57.9% 100% 100% +26.7%
≤30d 5 +38.6% +25.4% 80% 80% -3.0%
≤90d 5 +38.6% +25.4% 80% 80% -3.0%
all 20 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 55% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 55% -38.6%
10% -27.1% 50% -44.5%
15% -34.1% 35% -49.8%
20% -40.6% 25% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$185 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,073
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage196d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $33 +$42 +128%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $150 +$31 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $131 −$129 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $75 +$56 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$31 +70%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5 Jan 27 $30 +$13 +43%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $553 −$553 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Dec 18 $457 −$457 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Paris Basketball Dec 18 $369 +$86 +23%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Dec 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames Dec 18 $256 +$61 +24%
Monaco vs. FC Bayern Munchen Dec 17 $32 −$30 -96%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Anadolu Efes Dec 17 $49 +$71 +144%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Holy Cross Crusaders Dec 17 $60 +$45 +76%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Dec 16 $210 +$59 +28%
Paris Basketball vs. Barcelona Dec 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $278 +$132 +47%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $75 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $33 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 100¢ $181 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 83¢ $125 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 79¢ $25 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $131 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $131 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $75 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 9d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 48¢ $43 192d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 51¢ $510 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $33 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $63 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $34 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $11 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $23 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $26 192d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 63¢ $267 192d
Real Madrid vs. Paris Basketball SELL Real Madrid 100¢ $455 192d
Real Madrid vs. Paris Basketball BUY Real Madrid 81¢ $267 193d
Real Madrid vs. Paris Basketball BUY Real Madrid 81¢ $20 193d
Real Madrid vs. Paris Basketball BUY Real Madrid 81¢ $81 193d
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 85¢ $127 193d
Cavaliers vs. Bulls BUY Cavaliers 69¢ $31 193d
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5 BUY Under 70¢ $30 193d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames SELL Northern Iowa Panthers 100¢ $316 193d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames BUY Northern Iowa Panthers 86¢ $6 193d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames BUY Northern Iowa Panthers 82¢ $6 193d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames BUY Northern Iowa Panthers 83¢ $12 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records