Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd465…a2ee crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$8
sports 14% −$8
other 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -10.0%
≤30d 53 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -10.0%
≤90d 53 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -10.0%
all 53 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 38% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 38% -18.6%
15% -35.0% 38% -26.4%
20% -41.4% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$24 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -55%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $12 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$13 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$14 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$10 +68%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -89%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -74%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$15 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 +$5 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $41 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $17 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records