Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd463…198f sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$939 (-19%) realized −$798 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$729
7 days−$607
14 days−$471
30 days−$998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$816
other 24% −$334
crypto 14% −$43
tech 4% +$57
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.5% -23.6% 56% 50% -27.8%
≤30d 51 +20.1% +8.6% 51% 45% -31.5%
≤90d 51 +20.1% +8.6% 51% 45% -31.5%
all 51 +20.1% +8.6% 51% 45% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 45% -31.5%
10% -1.8% 39% -38.1%
15% -11.2% 25% -44.1%
20% -19.9% 22% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$77 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$798
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions8
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage29d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 59¢ 24¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $117 −$110 -94%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 −$29 -28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +106%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +22%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $307 +$198 +65%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 +$24 +24%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$45 -88%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$28 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +31%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$105 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $102 +$76 +74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$14 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$40 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$12 +108%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $204 +$60 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$23 +22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $21 −$5 -23%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 26 $515 −$302 -58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $117 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 85¢ $178 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $74 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $92 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $305 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 48¢ $21 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $204 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $103 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 2d
O/U 4.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $106 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $505 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 66¢ $102 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $102 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $102 2d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 93¢ $101 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $126 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $102 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $116 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.23 · official $309.23 (match) · 122 history records