Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd461…1375 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$822per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$7
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -47.0% -52.0% 53% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -60.8% -64.5% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -60.8% -64.5% 39% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -67.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -71.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -73.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -73% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2,047
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage47d
Avg bet$822
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,039 $2,042 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? Jun 29 $2,035 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $2,031 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28? Jun 28 $2,028 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,062 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,035 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,031 24h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,028 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 17d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 18d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,068 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2,062 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,054 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,050 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 40d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,047.17 · official $2,047.17 (match) · 36 history records