Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd45e…ed5d
crypto · 959 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$211 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$211 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses353 / 606
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)959 / 959
History coverage82d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 959 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$21
14 days+$13
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 10, 10AM ET? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 7, 10AM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 10AM ET? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 9AM ET? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 1? Dplus KIA 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? No 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 74,200 on May 29, 2PM ET? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 13, 5AM ET? Jun 13 $0 +$4 +9769%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$24 +260%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 5PM ET? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $7 +$8 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +9900%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $0 +$2 +8811%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $0 +$5 +33233%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $0 +$4 +9900%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 10 $0 +$4 +49847%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +116%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
HYPE Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 7, 10AM ET? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$284
other 8% −$69
sports 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 13, 5AM ET? SELL No 99¢ $4 3h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 13, 5AM ET? BUY No 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +207.3% +178.0% 31% 31% -6.5%
≤30d 74 +105.2% +85.6% 23% 23% -24.6%
≤90d 959 +33.3% +20.6% 37% 34% -11.4%
all 959 +33.3% +20.6% 37% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 34% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here +9.1% 30% -19.9%
15% -1.5% 26% -27.6%
20% -11.1% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records