Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd45d…105a sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$594 (+29%) realized +$595 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR87%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$89
14 days+$101
30 days+$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$578
other 2% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +87%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +56.9% +42.0% 100% 100% +40.4%
≤30d 20 +42.2% +28.7% 85% 85% +17.1%
≤90d 23 +43.4% +29.8% 87% 87% +18.2%
all 23 +43.4% +29.8% 87% 87% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 87% +18.2%
10% +17.3% 83% +6.9%
15% +6.0% 78% -3.5%
20% -4.4% 57% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$104 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$595
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage34d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 66¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $41 +$38 +93%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 03 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 26 $151 +$72 +48%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 25 $152 +$79 +52%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 23 $112 +$79 +70%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $66 +$46 +70%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 21 $40 +$25 +64%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 May 19 $198 +$41 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 66¢ $51 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $41 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $30 8h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $40 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 30h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $111 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $41 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $51 8d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 65¢ $101 10d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 11d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 73¢ $101 13d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 73¢ $101 15d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 64¢ $101 17d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 65¢ $101 20d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 65¢ $101 25d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $101 26d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 67¢ $151 27d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 65¢ $152 28d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 57¢ $101 29d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $112 30d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 58¢ $66 31d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 60¢ $40 32d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 78¢ $239 34d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $198 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.86 · official $48.86 (match) · 47 history records