Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd45c…c6c1 economics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+4%) realized +$158 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate86%24W / 4L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$59
tech 19% +$21
economics 17% +$33
world 15% +$2
other 9% +$24
crypto 6% +$9
finance 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 33% -1.9%
≤90d 11 +14.8% +3.9% 82% 36% -4.6%
all 28 +8.9% -1.5% 86% 29% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 29% -5.8%
10% -10.9% 7% -14.8%
15% -19.5% 7% -23.1%
20% -27.4% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses24 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage227d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $189 +$9 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$22 +73%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $52 −$8 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $188 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $132 +$20 +15%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $44 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 08 $215 −$6 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 31 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $213 +$7 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $189 −$36 -19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 19 $229 +$16 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $227 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $216 +$18 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $366 +$40 +11%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $162 +$6 +4%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 19 $10 +$1 +13%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $155 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $154 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $154 +$4 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Dec 22 $165 −$7 -4%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 13 $117 +$11 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 09 $29 +$2 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $32 +$5 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $124 +$6 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL No 96¢ $96 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $80 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $135 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $52 3d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $52 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $30 19d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 23d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 23d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $139 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $192 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $188 35d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 53d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 53d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $152 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $132 63d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $32 64d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 64d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $22 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? BUY Up 89¢ $44 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? SELL Up 100¢ $220 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 98¢ $51 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 98¢ $55 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 98¢ $109 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 98¢ $1 73d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 91¢ $208 73d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $3 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.84 · official $169.84 (match) · 362 history records