Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd45c…8768 sports 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$589 (+3%) realized +$661 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%292W / 14L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$40
14 days+$160
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$467
other 8% +$75
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 5% -4.8%
≤30d 98 +6.3% -3.9% 96% 11% -5.6%
≤90d 238 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 5% -7.0%
all 306 +3.4% -6.4% 95% 6% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 6% -7.0%
10% -15.4% 2% -15.9%
15% -23.5% 1% -24.0%
20% -31.0% 1% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$661
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses292 / 14
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions13
Markets (closed)306 / 319
History coverage418d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Completed match? Yes 99¢ 90¢ $54 $50 −$5 (-9%)
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire - Completed match? Yes 86¢ 68¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Completed match? Yes 92¢ 57¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-38%)
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings - Completed match? Yes 92¢ 51¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-45%)
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset - Completed match? Yes 93¢ 50¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-45%)
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire - Completed match? Yes 92¢ 50¢ $17 $10 −$8 (-45%)
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Gloucestershire - Completed match? Yes 90¢ 51¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-43%)
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia - Completed match? Yes 92¢ 50¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-45%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland - Completed match? Yes 94¢ 51¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands - Completed match? Yes 94¢ 51¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-46%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Completed match? Yes 97¢ 56¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-43%)
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil Bermuda 60¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil - Com Jun 26 $28 +$2 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands - Completed matc Jun 25 $40 +$2 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Completed match? Jun 25 $73 +$4 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 23 $27 +$2 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 23 $7 $0 +4%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings - Co Jun 23 $23 +$2 +8%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 22 $27 +$1 +4%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan - Completed Jun 22 $11 +$1 +11%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas - Completed Jun 22 $16 +$1 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India - Completed match? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +9%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? Jun 21 $31 +$2 +8%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders - Com Jun 21 $64 +$4 +6%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan Jun 21 $1 −$1 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland - Completed match? Jun 20 $43 +$3 +6%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 20 $138 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 20 $70 +$2 +3%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 19 $60 +$5 +8%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 19 $36 +$2 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 19 $43 +$2 +5%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Who wins the tos Jun 18 $92 +$1 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 18 $40 +$3 +9%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 17 $38 +$3 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh - Completed match? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $225 +$3 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Completed match? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 14 $44 +$4 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 14 $36 +$2 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Completed match? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $171 +$71 +42%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $67 −$2 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Completed match Jun 13 $21 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Completed match? Jun 13 $22 +$4 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 13 $27 +$4 +13%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates - Complet Jun 13 $28 +$2 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 12 $42 +$3 +8%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates - Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand - Completed match? Jun 12 $51 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 12 $178 +$3 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $142 +$7 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia - Completed match? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 42m
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia - Completed match? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 42m
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia - Completed match? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 43m
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire - Completed match? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire - Completed match? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 1h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire - Completed match? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset - Completed match? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 1h
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset - Completed match? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 1h
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset - Completed match? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil - Com SELL Yes 98¢ $30 1h
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings - Completed mat BUY Yes 96¢ $8 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Completed match BUY Yes 95¢ $5 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Completed match BUY Yes 93¢ $5 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Completed match BUY Yes 91¢ $6 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh - Completed match BUY Yes 90¢ $6 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands - Completed match? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Completed match? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 25h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings - Completed mat BUY Yes 92¢ $2 26h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings - Completed mat BUY Yes 90¢ $5 26h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings - Completed mat BUY Yes 90¢ $8 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Completed match? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 26h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil BUY Bermuda 60¢ $1 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland - Completed match? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland - Completed match? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland - Completed match? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire - Completed match? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 3d
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire - Completed match? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings - Co SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings - Co SELL Yes 99¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.06 · official $173.06 (match) · 1287 history records