Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd458…b521
other · 60 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$4,854 +35%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,293 · open −$154
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$779
Realized+$1,293
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses44 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions13
Markets (closed)50 / 60
History coverage42d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day79.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 13 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$391
14 days+$525
30 days+$804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $571 $465 −$106 (-19%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 89¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 +$6 +15%
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde: 2+ shots Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Wilson Isidor: 2+ shots Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Scott McTominay: 2+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ shots Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Ruben Providence: 1+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ shots Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Don Deedson Louicius: 1+ shots Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $37 +$9 +25%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $697 +$53 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $57 +$13 +24%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $605 +$117 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,536 −$303 -20%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $249 +$21 +8%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $510 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $686 +$110 +16%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,050 −$31 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $220 +$16 +7%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $60 +$34 +56%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $310 +$310 +100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $92 +$108 +118%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,089 +$26 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA May 28 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $315 +$135 +43%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $12 +$1 +5%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $124 +$5 +4%
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 20 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 18 $42 −$4 -11%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 18 $414 +$149 +36%
Will1. FC Heidenheim place 16th for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? May 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings May 16 $13 +$8 +60%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 13 $118 −$3 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $37 +$9 +26%
Will Enzo Fernández be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $168 +$72 +43%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $243 +$65 +27%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $31 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $84 +$2 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $15 +$4 +27%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $68 +$332 +488%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$231
sports 11% +$536
world 2% +$310
politics 2% +$65
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 1h
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $26 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $56 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $94 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 4h
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $22 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $48 5h
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $42 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $94 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 6h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 6h
Wilson Isidor: 2+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $60 6h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +11.5% +0.9% 92% 40% -3.0%
≤30d 38 +12.5% +1.8% 89% 39% -1.5%
≤90d 50 +21.9% +10.3% 88% 40% +2.1%
all 50 +21.9% +10.3% 88% 40% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 40% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 30% -7.7%
15% -9.9% 18% -16.6%
20% -18.8% 10% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.28 · official $779.28 (match) · 3500 history records