Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd453…0c05 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$50 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$20
14 days+$32
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$60
politics 10% −$22
sports 7% −$16
crypto 3% +$21
tech 1% −$2
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 25% -8.3%
≤30d 17 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 35% -6.6%
≤90d 45 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 36% -7.5%
all 45 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 36% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 36% -7.5%
10% -18.9% 27% -16.4%
15% -26.7% 13% -24.4%
20% -33.9% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)45 / 54
History coverage58d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $72 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 68¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 94¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 80¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 88¢ 87¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 20 $16 −$4 -25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $465 −$15 -3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $233 +$5 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $14 −$3 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $738 +$18 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 +$12 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$35 +341%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $71 +$23 +32%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on May 20? May 20 $13 −$5 -36%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 18 $17 +$5 +32%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $7 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $45 −$4 -9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 11 $28 −$1 -4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $28 +$6 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $48 +$8 +16%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 11 $75 −$19 -25%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 11 $23 −$13 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? May 11 $45 +$2 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 11 $16 +$7 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 11 $66 +$22 +33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 27 $15 −$11 -77%
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 27 $18 −$5 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $52 +$31 +59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $85 −$5 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $30 $0 -1%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $30 −$5 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $19 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $19 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 16¢ $44 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 22¢ $17 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 17¢ $17 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 14¢ $16 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $25 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 13¢ $12 10h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $26 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 17¢ $17 19h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 19h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $24 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $16 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $6 35h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $10 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 73¢ $28 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $98 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $25 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $26 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $27 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.69 · official $314.69 (match) · 327 history records