Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd452…51bb other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$956 (+47%) realized +$956 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$538
sports 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +12.4%
≤30d 6 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +12.4%
≤90d 6 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +12.4%
all 6 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 50% +12.4%
10% -37.4% 50% +1.6%
15% -43.5% 50% -8.2%
20% -49.0% 17% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$167 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$956
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $405 −$400 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,114 +$816 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $810 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records