Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd44e…67e2 world 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$284,455 (+37%) realized +$252,362 · open +$32,093
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%107W / 30L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$4,634per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$243,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$104,137
finance 2% +$2,174
other 2% +$1,861
sports 0% +$1,018
politics 0% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +68.1% +52.1% 75% 42% +4.3%
≤30d 64 +28.5% +16.2% 78% 45% -1.8%
≤90d 137 +23.2% +11.5% 78% 50% +2.6%
all 137 +23.2% +11.5% 78% 50% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 50% +2.6%
10% +0.8% 28% -7.2%
15% ← realistic here -8.9% 18% -16.2%
20% -17.9% 11% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$5,552) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,173 vs −$1,663 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$243,597
Realized+$252,362
Unrealized+$32,093
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses107 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions27
Markets (closed)137 / 165
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$4,634
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 60¢ 88¢ $18,305 $26,691 +$8,387 (+46%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 72¢ 84¢ $20,163 $23,391 +$3,229 (+16%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $21,704 $23,043 +$1,338 (+6%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 84¢ $18,479 $22,786 +$4,307 (+23%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 55¢ $22,732 $21,649 −$1,084 (-5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $15,827 $16,546 +$720 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 63¢ 72¢ $14,608 $16,451 +$1,842 (+13%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $13,430 $13,180 −$250 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 54¢ 98¢ $6,878 $12,494 +$5,616 (+82%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $8,299 $8,440 +$141 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 55¢ 85¢ $5,033 $7,807 +$2,774 (+55%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 69¢ 92¢ $5,112 $6,809 +$1,697 (+33%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 96¢ $5,334 $6,639 +$1,305 (+24%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $6,086 $6,001 −$85 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $3,951 $5,915 +$1,964 (+50%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $5,739 $5,874 +$135 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $3,841 $4,455 +$614 (+16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 52¢ $3,831 $4,122 +$291 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 62¢ 49¢ $4,008 $3,187 −$821 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $2,486 $2,474 −$12 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $2,404 $2,425 +$20 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $1,243 $1,295 +$52 (+4%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 76¢ 79¢ $935 $974 +$39 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $780 $642 −$138 (-18%)
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? No 75¢ 78¢ $206 $216 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,522 +$3,271 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,400 +$545 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $276 +$224 +81%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,455 +$3,769 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3,532 −$2,742 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8,450 +$3,616 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $6,390 +$13 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $3,115 +$305 +10%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $6,289 +$8,565 +136%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6,689 −$1,707 -26%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8,779 +$293 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11,555 −$2,220 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $761 +$335 +44%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $9,691 +$457 +5%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $124 +$1,553 +1248%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $55 +$6 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6,606 +$128 +2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $121 +$62 +52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3,679 −$608 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,123 −$33 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $3,489 +$281 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $800 +$56 +7%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,608 +$582 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $4,211 +$423 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3,528 +$304 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 +$5 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,681 −$466 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,324 −$1,284 -55%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10,701 −$7,706 -72%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +32%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,069 +$1,190 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,624 +$373 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $873 +$196 +22%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $3,958 +$239 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,970 +$405 +21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,739 +$870 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18,904 +$6,758 +36%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $37,592 +$4,159 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $11,527 +$1,880 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $14,384 +$1,767 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2,640 +$120 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $4,572 +$653 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 29 $706 +$78 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 29 $3,700 +$163 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5,552 −$418 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $312 27m
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $1,519 2h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,925 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $571 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $2,420 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $900 14h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5,333 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $140 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $188 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $6 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $5,451 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $940 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $199 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1,109 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,290 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $71 40h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 91¢ $46 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $212 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $19 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $14 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $136 2d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 91¢ $5 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243,597.00 · official $243,597.00 (match) · 3500 history records