trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 26 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Apr 26 | $25 | −$1 | -5% |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | Apr 26 | $40 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 26 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Apr 26 | $30 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Apr 26 | $70 | +$10 | +15% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? | Mar 12 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Mar 12 | $51,629 | +$50,931 | +99% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Mar 09 | $4,155 | +$2,632 | +63% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 09 | $4 | +$6 | +143% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 8? | Mar 08 | $9 | +$15 | +163% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27? | Mar 08 | $30 | +$12 | +41% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 2 | Mar 08 | $45 | +$26 | +59% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 2 | Mar 08 | $71 | +$44 | +62% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 3 | Mar 08 | $270 | +$42 | +16% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 1 | Mar 08 | $188 | +$126 | +67% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3? | Mar 08 | $626 | +$210 | +34% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? | Mar 08 | $1,287 | +$443 | +34% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13? | Mar 08 | $2,151 | +$1,341 | +62% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8 | Mar 08 | $4,131 | +$188 | +5% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 1 | Mar 08 | $2,739 | +$1,935 | +71% |
| UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) | Mar 08 | $37 | +$63 | +170% |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc | Mar 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | Mar 07 | $2,342 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? | Mar 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | +7.4% | -2.8% | 83% | 50% | -1.8% |
| all | 25 | +41.3% | +27.8% | 88% | 68% | +65.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +27.8% | 68% | +65.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +15.6% | 52% | +49.7% |
| 15% | +4.4% | 44% | +35.3% |
| 20% | -5.8% | 40% | +22.0% |