Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd44c…28c5
sports · 1104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$337 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$321 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$382
Realized−$321
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses424 / 541
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions186
Markets (closed)965 / 1104
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day555.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 186 History 965 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$321
14 days−$321
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 86¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 45¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+120%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 43¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+131%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 67¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 68¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 12? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 12? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 12? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 12? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 12? Yes 84¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner G2 NORD 90¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 12? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 58¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Lucas Marionneau Andrew Fenty 55¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 12? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Up 65¢ 75¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Dominican Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% −$104
crypto 28% −$108
world 8% −$18
other 5% −$7
tech 3% −$4
politics 1% −$5
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $5 11m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $1 27m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 36m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 37m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 81¢ $1 37m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1 40m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 40m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $2 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 41m
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 NORD 90¢ $5 42m
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $2 45m
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi SELL Elizabeth Mandlik 100¢ $5 45m
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $5 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1 49m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 53¢ $3 51m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 46¢ $2 54m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $1 57m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $1 1h
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 31¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Lucas Marionneau BUY Andrew Fenty 55¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 965 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 29% -19.8%
≤30d 965 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 29% -19.8%
≤90d 965 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 29% -19.8%
all 965 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 29% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover555.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 29% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 24% -27.4%
15% -36.1% 20% -34.5%
20% -42.4% 16% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.13 · official $381.52 (match) · 3500 history records