Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd44b…df3c world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$4
politics 18% −$2
other 18% −$1
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 21 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 21 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 50 -2.9% -12.2% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage257d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $8 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $176 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $16 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $111 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$2 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $9 −$4 -45%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 20 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Nov 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 20 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $22 $0 -1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $8 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $8 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $50 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $16 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.10 · official $26.10 (match) · 203 history records