Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd444…0641 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%53W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 53 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses53 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage78d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 08 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $128 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $127 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $127 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $126 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $124 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $126 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $125 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $125 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $125 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $125 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $124 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $124 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $124 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $124 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $123 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.85 · official $127.85 (match) · 108 history records