Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd440…bb43 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% $0
other 15% $0
finance 6% +$1
politics 4% $0
tech 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -1.8% -11.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 5% -9.4%
all 30 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage455d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -19%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $97 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $43 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $41 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 21 $9 $0 -3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $48 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $49 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $48 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $48 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $43 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $30 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $49 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $48 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records