Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd43f…16b2 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$715 (+33%) realized +$762 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$190
other 33% −$106
sports 8% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -38.2%
≤30d 19 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -38.2%
≤90d 19 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -38.2%
all 19 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 37% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 37% -38.2%
10% -42.3% 37% -44.1%
15% -47.9% 32% -49.5%
20% -53.0% 21% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$60 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized+$762
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $250 $210 −$40 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$37 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $156 −$156 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $182 +$82 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $130 +$81 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$25 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$7 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$17 +316%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $266 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 13¢ $103 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $257 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $263 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $175 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $165 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $78 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $33 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $88 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.14 · official $803.84 · 48 history records