Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd43e…a97d politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-0%) realized −$280 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$747per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$53
other 34% −$442
sports 12% +$211
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
world 0% +$1
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +2.4% -7.3% 9% 2% -9.0%
all 130 -3.3% -12.5% 22% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 8% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 8% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,171) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,124
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage149d
Avg bet$747
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $665 $667 +$2 (+0%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $257 $257 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,473 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,988 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $283 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $528 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,727 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $478 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,346 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $247 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,305 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,181 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,009 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2,143 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,844 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2,396 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $240 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $665 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,156 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,166 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,167 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,058 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,059 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $957 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $958 16d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $966 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $967 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 24d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 24d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,157 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.74 · official $1,123.74 (match) · 407 history records