Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd43d…8a2a world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$22,318 (+22%) realized +$23,127 · open −$809
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,807per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,875
7 days−$11,583
14 days−$10,723
30 days−$12,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$19,721
other 9% +$2,513
crypto 4% −$691
politics 3% +$191
finance 2% +$1,752
sports 1% −$1,060
culture 0% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.5% -37.2% 0% 0% -40.7%
≤30d 32 -12.0% -20.4% 28% 19% -22.2%
≤90d 51 +57.5% +42.5% 29% 22% +13.2%
all 51 +57.5% +42.5% 29% 22% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.5% 22% +13.2%
10% ← realistic here +28.8% 18% +2.4%
15% +16.4% 16% -7.5%
20% +5.0% 16% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$1,500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +120% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,969 vs −$599 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$23,127
Unrealized−$809
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage50d
Avg bet$1,807
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes $1,241 $494 −$747 (-60%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by June 30? Yes 55¢ 24¢ $95 $42 −$53 (-56%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? Yes 55¢ 33¢ $43 $26 −$17 (-39%)
Screwworm National Emergency declared by June 30? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10,426 −$8,875 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10,139 −$882 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $7,303 −$923 -13%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $5,758 −$903 -16%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1,088 −$1,060 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $525 +$1,623 +309%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $272 −$261 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $699 −$528 -76%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $22 −$17 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $1,500 −$818 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $5,809 +$1,921 +33%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $755 −$124 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,773 −$691 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $22,937 +$2,128 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary May 29 $258 −$101 -39%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary May 29 $815 −$253 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $908 +$119 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $228 −$218 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $617 +$88 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 25 $195 +$239 +122%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $200 +$770 +385%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $962 −$483 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $200 −$99 -49%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,007 −$917 -91%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $900 +$39 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $3,339 −$474 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $804 +$63 +8%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $1,110 −$1,071 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $110 −$10 -9%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $49 −$47 -96%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $415 −$400 -96%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 19 $1,997 −$444 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 17 $66 +$944 +1436%
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 16 $149 −$125 -84%
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 16 $64 −$26 -41%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $3,318 +$4,430 +134%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 12 $959 +$42 +4%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 12 $1,576 −$386 -24%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $730 −$441 -60%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? May 09 $237 −$142 -60%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $2,000 +$29,840 +1492%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 05 $103 −$7 -7%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $230 −$230 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $252 −$176 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $180 −$144 -80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 30 $104 −$89 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $130 −$98 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 30 $5 −$1 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $200 +$1,285 +642%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $127 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 3h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes $8 12h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes $20 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $44 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $18 19h
Screwworm National Emergency declared by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $46 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $274 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $281 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $101 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1,949 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $102 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1,468 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $412 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $80 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $4,002 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.34 · official $580.94 (match) · 650 history records