Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd43d…d101 weather 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
weather 23% −$2
crypto 4% −$5
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -44.6% -49.9% 40% 40% -28.2%
≤30d 5 -44.6% -49.9% 40% 40% -28.2%
≤90d 5 -44.6% -49.9% 40% 40% -28.2%
all 5 -44.6% -49.9% 40% 40% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.9% 40% -28.2%
10% -54.7% 0% -35.1%
15% -59.0% 0% -41.4%
20% -63.1% 0% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 79¢ 79¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.76 · official $94.26 (match) · 18 history records