Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd43c…04e8
sports · 130 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
−$1,563,496 -53%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,563,496 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,563,496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses60 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 130
History coverage220d
Avg bet$22,605
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,351,006
7 days−$1,351,006
14 days−$1,293,039
30 days−$1,293,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $1,110 $0 −$1,110 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Spurs Hawks 51¢ 0¢ $25,884 $0 −$25,884 (-100%)
Lakers vs. 76ers 76ers 42¢ 0¢ $27,937 $0 −$27,937 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $29,250 $0 −$29,250 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) PSG Talon 62¢ 0¢ $24,836 $0 −$24,836 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $5,591 $0 −$5,591 (-100%)
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $15,840 $0 −$15,840 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $12,255 $0 −$12,255 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Spurs 48¢ 0¢ $3,659 $0 −$3,659 (-100%)
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $1,103 $0 −$1,103 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner CTBC Flying Oyster 50¢ 0¢ $5,341 $0 −$5,341 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Gen.G 88¢ 0¢ $249,875 $0 −$249,875 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) FlyQuest 53¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $23,431 $0 −$23,431 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $30,267 $0 −$30,267 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $14,608 $0 −$14,608 (-100%)
Spread: 76ers (-5.5) 76ers 47¢ 0¢ $25,958 $0 −$25,958 (-100%)
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Trail Blazers 50¢ 0¢ $30,000 $0 −$30,000 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $31,107 $0 −$31,107 (-100%)
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $643,810 $0 −$643,810 (-100%)
Spread: Warriors (-5.5) Warriors 48¢ 0¢ $29,614 $0 −$29,614 (-100%)
Heat vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $24,975 $0 −$24,975 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Nuggets 45¢ 0¢ $24,508 $0 −$24,508 (-100%)
Heat vs. Spurs Heat 33¢ 0¢ $13,685 $0 −$13,685 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Jun 12 $24,836 −$24,836 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Jun 12 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5 Jun 12 $23,431 −$23,431 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-5.5) Jun 12 $25,958 −$25,958 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jun 12 $643,810 −$643,810 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 12 $7,243 −$7,243 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 12 $24,960 −$24,960 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $19,600 −$19,600 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5 Jun 12 $2,210 −$2,210 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 12 $42,576 −$42,576 -100%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $8,540 −$8,540 -100%
Pistons vs. Bulls Jun 12 $14,164 −$14,164 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) Jun 12 $19,824 −$19,824 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $400,133 −$400,133 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Jun 12 $10,135 −$10,135 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 12 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Jun 12 $10,001 −$10,001 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Jun 12 $13,711 −$13,711 -100%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Jun 12 $48,748 −$48,748 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $8,171 +$13,707 +168%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $33,870 +$44,208 +130%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $3 +$5 +177%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $44 +$47 +106%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5) Dec 21 $35,802 +$37,263 +104%
Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5 Dec 21 $600 −$12 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 235.5 Dec 21 $36,275 +$34,846 +96%
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) Dec 21 $31,747 +$40,330 +127%
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Dec 20 $31,107 −$31,107 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5 Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Dec 20 $30,000 +$32,500 +108%
Spread: Thunder (-18.5) Dec 20 $157 +$200 +127%
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5 Dec 19 $30,000 −$30,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Dec 19 $29,900 +$32,400 +108%
Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5 Dec 19 $6,924 +$8,744 +126%
Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5 Dec 19 $19,355 +$25,657 +133%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5 Dec 19 $22,909 −$22,909 -100%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5 Dec 19 $7,027 −$7,027 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Dec 19 $30,000 −$30,000 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Dec 19 $22,200 +$37,740 +170%
Heat vs. Nets Dec 18 $22,365 −$22,365 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $29,700 +$68,900 +232%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Dec 18 $30,267 −$30,267 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Dec 18 $1,927 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Dec 17 $28,339 −$28,338 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Dec 17 $5,591 −$5,591 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5 Dec 17 $27,729 −$27,728 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5 Dec 16 $7,623 +$7,935 +104%
Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 237.5 Dec 16 $22,589 +$23,511 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$260,841
politics 1% +$57,899
other 0% −$9,600
world 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 49¢ $93 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $32 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $135 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $313 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 49¢ $747 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 49¢ $1,143 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $3 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $370 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $111 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $14,500 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $3 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $25 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $4,114 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 49¢ $5,183 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $69 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 50¢ $137 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 35¢ $8 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 35¢ $1,673 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 34¢ $686 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 39¢ $78 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 39¢ $127 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 39¢ $1,468 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 39¢ $2 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 39¢ $42 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 35¢ $35 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 34¢ $3,892 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 30¢ $6,491 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 34¢ $124 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 34¢ $2 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 34¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 25 -60.7% -64.5% 16% 16% -93.5%
≤90d 25 -60.7% -64.5% 16% 16% -93.5%
all 150 -12.2% -20.5% 40% 40% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 40% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 40% -48.0%
15% -35.1% 39% -53.0%
20% -41.5% 39% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records