Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd439…b819 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$16
politics 33% −$13
sports 13% −$9
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage135d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $379 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $492 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $509 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $430 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $479 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $226 $0 +0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $458 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $404 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $276 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $249 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 9h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 24d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 26d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $180 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 27d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 28d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $207 28d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $261 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $261 31d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $248 31d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $248 32d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 32d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 33d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 33d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 34d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 34d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 360 history records