Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd439…21d3
sports · 517 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,294 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,256 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized−$2,256
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses206 / 305
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions6
Markets (closed)511 / 517
History coverage156d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 6 History 511 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$40
14 days+$127
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Mentality Monster 61¢ 100¢ $36 $59 +$23 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+72%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Pandawa Lima 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner Geek Fam ID 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Ivory 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner GLYPH 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs sifr00 (BO3) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qualifier Playoffs sifr00 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Aurora 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$15 +62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$18 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$36 +119%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $92 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$7 +36%
Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$17 +55%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $31 +$42 +137%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 03 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs sifr00 (BO3) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $31 +$69 +226%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO5) - MPL Philip May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $11 +$3 +25%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern May 30 $41 −$4 -9%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Cha May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C May 30 $121 +$50 +42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $51 +$58 +114%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $31 +$19 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $36 +$39 +110%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $22 +$23 +103%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $30 +$22 +73%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $44 +$32 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29? May 25 $51 +$163 +319%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 25 $5 +$16 +307%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular S May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$2,248
other 13% +$304
crypto 7% −$369
world 0% +$16
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 42¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 38¢ $2 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner BUY Geek Fam ID 67¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY Pandawa Lima 50¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY Pandawa Lima 56¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast BUY Ivory 29¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 55¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 62¢ $20 4h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 62¢ $30 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 45¢ $30 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 7¢ $3 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 32¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 42¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 40¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 40¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $20 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 52¢ $30 5d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 23¢ $10 7d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY Yes 15¢ $7 7d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 39¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 73¢ $20 9d
Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 64¢ $30 9d
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 9d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 41¢ $31 9d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs sifr00 (BO3) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed BUY sifr00 2¢ $1 10d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.4% -2.8% 67% 50% +7.8%
≤30d 103 +2.3% -7.4% 46% 44% +0.6%
≤90d 451 -29.4% -36.2% 34% 33% -23.7%
all 511 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 39% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% -18.8%
10% -29.5% 38% -26.6%
15% -36.3% 35% -33.7%
20% -42.6% 31% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.80 · official $107.84 (match) · 1218 history records