Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd437…7d33 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$184 (+13%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$158
other 35% +$94
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 40% -14.6%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 21 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 38% -15.8%
all 28 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 36% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 36% -15.1%
10% -20.5% 29% -23.3%
15% -28.2% 18% -30.7%
20% -35.2% 18% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage157d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 $0 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $259 −$251 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$57 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $175 +$27 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $167 +$22 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$75 +81%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$35 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$8 +378%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 +$11 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $4 +$19 +487%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $60 17m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $259 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $259 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $202 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $164 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $186 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $184 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $190 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $167 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $167 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $92 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $57 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records