Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd436…18a9
crypto · 94 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$42 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses54 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage137d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs cincai team 66¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 37¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+169%)
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 20¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Pandawa Lima 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Laurence Teunissen vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
ITF Tokyo: Sae Noguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 12 $14 −$10 -75%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $21 +$8 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $4 −$1 -17%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $20 −$3 -13%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Stefan Storch Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Jia Hu vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 09 $9 −$1 -15%
ITF Tokyo: Riku Takahata vs Saki Tange Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3 +$2 +61%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $9 $0 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 02 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 09 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 06 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 06 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 06 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 05 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 05 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 05 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 05 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 05 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 05 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$45
sports 33% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 20¢ $1 17m
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY cincai team 84¢ $6 27m
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY cincai team 42¢ $2 36m
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY Pandawa Lima 25¢ $1 50m
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas BUY Pandawa Lima 25¢ $1 51m
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 37¢ $2 1h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60¢ $3 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 20¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 94¢ $5 2h
ITF Kayseri: Laurence Teunissen vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar BUY Haydar Cem Gokpinar 58¢ $3 2h
ITF Kayseri: Laurence Teunissen vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar BUY Haydar Cem Gokpinar 76¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 71¢ $4 3h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 54¢ $3 19h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 80¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 81¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 40¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 51¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $2 25h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 65¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 68¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 64¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 66¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 64¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 64¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 64¢ $3 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 27¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.7% -3.5% 58% 53% -7.1%
≤30d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 57% 52% -6.8%
≤90d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 57% 52% -6.8%
all 90 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 51% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 51% -18.2%
10% -25.6% 33% -26.0%
15% -32.8% 21% -33.2%
20% -39.4% 10% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.84 · official $20.84 (match) · 242 history records