Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd435…4d02 crypto 26 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$95 (+35%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$95
weather 16% −$14
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 38% +17.3%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 38% +17.1%
≤90d 26 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 38% +17.1%
all 26 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 38% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 38% +17.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 38% +5.9%
15% -25.1% 38% -4.3%
20% -32.5% 27% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$82 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$11 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$67 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$12 +131%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$11 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records