Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd42f…e0aa crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$776 (+15%) realized +$776 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%50W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$260
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -6.2% -15.2% 35% 35% -5.0%
≤30d 141 -6.2% -15.2% 35% 35% -5.0%
≤90d 141 -6.2% -15.2% 35% 35% -5.0%
all 141 -6.2% -15.2% 35% 35% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 35% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 34% -14.1%
15% -30.7% 33% -22.4%
20% -37.5% 33% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$33 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$776
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses50 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$238 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$162 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$111 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$86 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$296 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$67 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$132 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$132 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$181 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$50 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $32 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $266 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $148 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $37 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records