Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd42c…72cb crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-6%) realized −$7 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%30W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day186.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -9.6% -18.2% 77% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 39 -9.6% -18.2% 77% 44% -11.2%
≤90d 39 -9.6% -18.2% 77% 44% -11.2%
all 39 -9.6% -18.2% 77% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 44% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 21% -19.7%
15% -33.2% 5% -27.5%
20% -39.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20.982975611309655% → late 1.14528031894704% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses30 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day186.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 0¢ 70¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.88 · official $3.88 (match) · 229 history records