Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd42c…7f14 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%66W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$7
weather 15% $0
other 10% $0
politics 8% $0
world 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 67 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses66 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage544d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 16? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 26? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 May 11-17? May 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will gpt-5.5-high have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? May 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 8? May 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 2? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 2 May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 2? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 25? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on April 2 Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on April 25? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 26? Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 22? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18? Apr 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 10? Apr 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? Apr 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on April 5? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 5? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 5? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 19? Mar 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 03 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jan 31 $47 −$10 -20%
Will Trump rename Greenland 'Red, White, and Blueland' before July? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies 9/11 files in first 100 days? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before April? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 26 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $78 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $66 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 35d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 46d
Will Solana reach $130 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $56 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 50d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $26 52d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $68 52d
Will gpt-5.5-high have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 52d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 59d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $28 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $23 59d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $11 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $17 64d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $11 64d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 64d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $60 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $14 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $18 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of April 6 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $31 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $24 78d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $12 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.42 · official $102.42 (match) · 144 history records