Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd42a…e2e8 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$14
other 39% +$7
politics 7% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 17 +6.7% -3.5% 41% 12% -7.6%
≤90d 17 +6.7% -3.5% 41% 12% -7.6%
all 29 +1.5% -8.1% 48% 10% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 10% -7.0%
10% -16.9% 7% -15.9%
15% -25.0% 7% -24.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage436d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $53 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $61 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $13 +$15 +121%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Dec 15 $1 −$1 -40%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 21 $3 $0 -8%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $58 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $42 19h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $12 20h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $53 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $0 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $53 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $19 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $22 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records