Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd428…ebc1
crypto · 78 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$65 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage27d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 0 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$21 +85%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 24 $57 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 24 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 23 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 23 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 23 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 23 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 23 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 23 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$62
other 10% −$3
world 6% +$3
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 21h
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 10d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.6% -25.5% 33% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 78 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 51% -14.7%
≤90d 78 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 51% -14.7%
all 78 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 51% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 51% -14.7%
10% -17.1% 42% -22.8%
15% -25.1% 31% -30.3%
20% -32.4% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records