Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd425…bf47 crypto 694 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,033 (-8%) realized −$3,028 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%382W / 310L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$637
crypto 34% −$3,980
weather 10% $0
politics 1% −$172
world 1% −$200
other 0% −$121
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 490 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 55% -10.2%
all 692 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 54% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 54% -19.1%
10% -17.6% 53% -26.8%
15% -25.6% 45% -33.9%
20% -32.9% 35% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$50 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$3,028
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses382 / 310
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions2
Markets (closed)692 / 694
History coverage220d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 55¢ 54¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 12? May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 11? May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? May 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $34 +$13 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? May 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11? May 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 12? May 12 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11? May 11 $51 +$22 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 08 $50 +$28 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 7? May 07 $50 +$19 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? May 07 $50 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 7? May 07 $50 +$20 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 4? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4? May 05 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? May 05 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 4? May 05 $4 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4? May 05 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? May 04 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? May 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? May 03 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 03 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 03 $203 −$203 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 03 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 03 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April May 03 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 29? May 03 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 29? May 03 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29? May 03 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? May 03 $49 +$23 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $134 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 35d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $11 37d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $19 37d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $8 37d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 12? BUY No 82¢ $45 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? BUY No 74¢ $20 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? BUY No 74¢ $30 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 70¢ $25 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 70¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 70¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? BUY No 72¢ $5 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 70¢ $10 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 70¢ $7 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.16 · official $259.16 (match) · 2239 history records