Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd425…c0e4 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3412 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$68,325 (+289%) realized +$68,360 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +540% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +393% what you keep after slip
Net edge+393%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%257W / 130L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day3412.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3412 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+479.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 +540.2% +479.2% 66% 62% +38.9%
≤30d 387 +540.2% +479.2% 66% 62% +38.9%
≤90d 387 +540.2% +479.2% 66% 62% +38.9%
all 387 +540.2% +479.2% 66% 62% +38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3412.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +479.2% 62% +38.9%
10% ← realistic here +423.8% 60% +25.6%
15% +373.2% 58% +13.5%
20% +326.8% 57% +2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +540% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +23% → late +1054% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
79.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$80 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$68,360
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses257 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)387 / 43
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$549
Trades / day3412.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 56¢ 26¢ $67 $32 −$35 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 356 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $223 −$147 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$162 +733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$29 +541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$110 +512%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$27 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$85 +5252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$83 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$134 +791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$171 +1809%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$46 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$37 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$187 +4500%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$28 +1860%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$78 +282%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$109 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$150 +1417%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$34 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$250 +914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$111 +2967%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$93 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$130 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$129 +1372%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$9 -1073%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$164 +1575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$204 +455%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$247 +10015%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$31 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$78 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$422 +418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$94 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$236 -382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$21 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$25 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$276 +1743%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$143 +30338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$33 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$71 +1145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$143 -1223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$55 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$57 +1024%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$331 +1615%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$214 +4444%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.53 · official $658.06 · 3500 history records