Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D4 0xd424…8835 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized +$59 · open −$80

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown84%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$8

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-33.9%	-40.2%	33%	33%	-11.4%
≤30d	9	-33.9%	-40.2%	33%	33%	-11.4%
≤90d	15	+19.9%	+8.5%	40%	40%	-7.7%
all	17	+37.9%	+24.7%	47%	47%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.7%	47%	+10.4%
10%	+12.8%	41%	-0.1%
15%	+1.9%	41%	-9.8%
20%	-8.1%	41%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +119% → late -34% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$51 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.4 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage

Net worth$151

Realized+$59

Unrealized−$80

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage128d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown84%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$101	$81	−$19 (-19%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	46¢	24¢	$130	$69	−$61 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 17	$103	+$85	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 17	$52	+$79	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 17	$31	+$19	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 17	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Apr 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Apr 29	$11	+$42	+397%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Apr 29	$167	−$167	-100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Apr 29	$50	+$191	+381%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA	Mar 20	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio	Mar 20	$50	+$62	+124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21?	Feb 21	$50	+$167	+333%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	Feb 18	$30	+$4	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$11	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	49d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA	BUY Canada	54¢	$100	115d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	16¢	$67	115d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	21¢	$50	115d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	15¢	$50	115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$217	115d
Will Partido Popular win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regio	BUY Yes	45¢	$50	116d
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	BUY Yes	46¢	$130	116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21?	BUY Yes	23¢	$50	116d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	116d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$50	116d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY Yes	15¢	$50	116d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$34	119d
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	128d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.57 · official $150.57 (match) · 166 history records