Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd422…9531 crypto 892 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (214 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$432 (+4%) realized +$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%391W / 501L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day214.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$113
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (214 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 33% -13.3%
≤30d 892 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 28% -11.5%
≤90d 892 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 28% -11.5%
all 892 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 28% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover214.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 28% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 19% -20.0%
15% -26.6% 11% -27.7%
20% -33.8% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses391 / 501
Open positions0
Markets (closed)892 / 892
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day214.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 892 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +224%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$23 +215%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records