Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd421…f8ba world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$4
politics 4% $0
other 3% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage487d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $67 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $85 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? Apr 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February Mar 04 $7 $0 +1%
UL Monroe vs. Texas State Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 23 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $36 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $8 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $28 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $36 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $8 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $16 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $12 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $7 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records