Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd41e…547c other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+9%) realized +$89 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$209
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$150
sports 13% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +27.4% +15.3% 36% 36% +22.5%
≤30d 47 +38.6% +25.4% 36% 36% +23.3%
≤90d 47 +38.6% +25.4% 36% 36% +23.3%
all 47 +38.6% +25.4% 36% 36% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 36% +23.3%
10% +13.4% 28% +11.5%
15% +2.5% 28% +0.7%
20% -7.6% 26% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×9.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $91 +$57 +62%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $83 +$81 +98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $62 +$8 +13%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $1 +$6 +548%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$22 +11%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 +$18 +873%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $4 +$12 +285%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$7 +17%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 +$9 +873%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$12 +47%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 $0 -30%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +163%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +595%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 58m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $60 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $41 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $50 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 7h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 28h
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $100 29h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 40h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.43 · official $313.43 (match) · 107 history records