Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd41d…75fe crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$182 (-10%) realized −$184 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$170
crypto 42% −$129
world 2% $0
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 17% -25.7%
≤30d 63 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 17% -25.7%
≤90d 63 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 17% -25.7%
all 63 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 17% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 17% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 16% -32.8%
15% -44.3% 11% -39.3%
20% -49.8% 11% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $228 −$103 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$4 -55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 +$124 +549%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$24 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $113 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$10 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $97 −$65 -67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $96 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$31 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $35 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.83 · official $21.83 (match) · 332 history records