Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd41c…e7b9
sports · 63 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$538 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$529 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$529
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage51d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$97
14 days+$50
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 38¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Crystal Palace FC 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Natus Vincere 48¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Canadiens Lightning 53¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Heroic 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Real Madrid CF 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 61¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) RB Leipzig 59¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Aston Villa FC 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Team Vitality 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BIG 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A FUT Esports 69¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$10 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$24 +118%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $46 +$31 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 +$14 +45%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$30 +59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $51 −$4 -9%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $25 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$18 +88%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$58 +57%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $51 +$33 +64%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $101 +$68 +67%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 23 $51 +$42 +82%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $56 +$19 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $51 −$19 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $20 +$16 +77%
Valorant: ZETA DIVISION vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pac May 12 $91 +$30 +33%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 12 $101 +$89 +88%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $66 +$54 +83%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $66 +$36 +55%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 +$16 +303%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $152 +$79 +52%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 09 $15 +$22 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$400
other 23% +$43
world 2% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $60 6m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $51 20m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $31 22m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 36¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 57¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 57¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 58¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 64¢ $77 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $19 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $36 4h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $20 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 89¢ $44 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 14¢ $10 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $10 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $20 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $61 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $46 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 84¢ $44 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL MIBR 100¢ $81 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $46 10d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 62¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.8% -6.1% 60% 50% +18.5%
≤30d 32 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 53% +10.2%
≤90d 62 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 55% +8.2%
all 62 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 55% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 55% +8.2%
10% -13.0% 52% -2.1%
15% -21.4% 48% -11.6%
20% -29.1% 44% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 121 history records