Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd41b…920e other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$18
crypto 10% −$28
world 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.4% -7.4% 67% 67% -39.9%
≤30d 3 +2.4% -7.4% 67% 67% -39.9%
≤90d 3 +2.4% -7.4% 67% 67% -39.9%
all 3 +2.4% -7.4% 67% 67% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 67% -39.9%
10% -16.2% 33% -45.7%
15% -24.3% 33% -50.9%
20% -31.7% 33% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$53 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$715
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 66¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+92%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 75¢ 69¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $714.82 · official $713.94 (match) · 21 history records