Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd41a…deb1 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$7
other 13% −$1
politics 9% −$1
crypto 6% $0
finance 5% $0
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 0% -8.9%
all 47 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage279d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $162 +$5 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $120 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $54 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $96 +$3 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $11 −$3 -31%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in October? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $48 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 26h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 32h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $46 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $46 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $38 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $59 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $58 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $22 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $36 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.01 · official $43.01 (match) · 198 history records